Russian expansion in Madagascar puts a major global shipping artery at risk

The political transition in Madagascar following the October 2025 coup represents a major geopolitical shift toward Moscow, displacing Western influence in the Indian Ocean. By exploiting the military government's need for regime security, Russia leverages security assistance, arms transfers, and humanitarian aid to obtain strategic access. Moscow's objective centers on gaining access to the Mozambique Channel and naval infrastructure to project military capabilities over vital maritime energy corridors. Simultaneously, Russian strategy targets Madagascar's critical mineral reserves, seeking to displace Western companies from strategic supply chains. This expansion creates broader systemic risks by integrating new maritime choke points under revisionist influence, threatening Western energy security and global commerce. However, long-term Russian influence remains precarious due to Madagascar's economic reliance on Western markets and the risk of severe sanctions.

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