Russia’s Grip on the Eastern Mediterranean Begins to Slip

An unexpected assault on Russia’s main airbase in Syria has exposed growing instability in Moscow’s overseas military presence. What might have once been dismissed as an isolated incident now signals deeper challenges for Russia’s long-term role in post-war Syria. As a new Syrian leadership takes shape, old alliances are being tested and once-stable arrangements are unraveling. The attack on Khmeimim Air Base reveals not only the fragility of Russia’s foothold but also the shifting dynamics of power in a fractured state. At stake is Moscow’s ability to project influence across the Middle East amid rising local resistance and geopolitical uncertainty. With tensions mounting, Russia may soon face the choice between compromise and confrontation to maintain its strategic grip.

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