Russia cannot keep up with destroyed aircraft losses

Russia’s air campaign faces an unsustainable attrition deficit as combat losses, operational crashes, and deep strikes on airfield infrastructure outpace domestic production rates by more than two to one. This widening deficit directly threatens Moscow’s primary tactical advantage: the high-volume deployment of standoff glide bombs by heavy strike aircraft like the Su-34 to dismantle Ukrainian frontline fortifications. By leveraging long-range strike systems against aircraft repair depots, manufacturing supply chains, and forward operating hangars, Ukraine systematically targets the adversary's industrial sustainment base rather than relying solely on contested frontline air defense. Compounded by severe radar-cross-section limitations and sluggish output of fifth-generation fighters, the Aerospace Forces remain constrained to an overextended multirole fleet facing rapid operational exhaustion. As prospective integration of longer-range Western airframes and beyond-visual-range interceptors threatens Russian standoff launch envelopes, this compounding airframe deficit signals a structural contraction of Moscow's offensive momentum.

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