Russia-controlled Transnistria is now under total blockade

For decades, Moldova has existed in a fragile equilibrium shaped by an unresolved conflict it could neither solve nor ignore. Transnistria functioned as a frozen problem that allowed Russia to retain leverage without constant confrontation, relying on access, ambiguity, and inertia rather than force. That arrangement depended on open corridors, permissive borders, and the assumption that no one would fully enforce sovereignty. The regional war triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has steadily eroded those assumptions, turning tolerance into vulnerability. Chisinau and Kyiv have now reached the conclusion that managing the status quo is more dangerous than dismantling it. What follows is not a sudden escalation, but a calculated attempt to suffocate Russian influence using law, coordination, and time rather than weapons.

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