Russian blackmail: allow our soldiers in, or we will wipe you out economically

Russia has transitioned from a security guarantor to a source of economic coercion, warning Armenia of severe repercussions for its pivot toward the European Union. This escalation follows the erosion of Russian military legitimacy after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the subsequent failure of CSTO mechanisms. Yerevan is actively decoupling from Russian strategic assets, including border control and energy infrastructure, to reduce long-term vulnerability. The halving of trade turnover reflects a deliberate strategy to diminish Moscow’s leverage. Consequently, the relationship has transitioned from a voluntary alliance to a confrontation over the high cost of Armenian exit.

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