Something big is about to happen in Chechnya

Power in Chechnya has long rested on a single pillar: the personal authority of Ramzan Kadyrov and his direct relationship with the Kremlin. This system provided Moscow with stability on its southern flank, but it was never institutionalized and depended almost entirely on one man’s health and coercive control. As Russia becomes increasingly stretched by war and internal pressures, its ability to manage fragile regional power arrangements is diminishing. Succession in Chechnya was always the regime’s most dangerous vulnerability, postponed rather than resolved through dynastic symbolism and fear. Once uncertainty enters such a system, violence does not need to begin openly for society to react, as elites reposition and civilians seek safety in advance. The current developments signal that Chechnya is entering exactly this phase, where perception of collapse may be as destabilizing as collapse itself.

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