Turkey conducts a revenge strike on Russian Black Sea drones after Russia strikes Turkish ships in Odesa

Ukraine’s sustained pressure in the Black Sea has pushed Russia into openly targeting commercial shipping, triggering a direct clash with Turkey’s strategic and economic red lines. By steadily degrading Russian naval freedom of action, Ukraine has forced Moscow out of military targets and into risky, politically damaging strikes against civilian-linked vessels. These attacks are not a sign of strength, but of Russia losing control of the maritime battlespace Ukraine has methodically contested. As Russian options narrow, its responses grow more reckless, dragging third parties into a conflict it can no longer dominate at sea. For Ukraine, this marks another success: Russia is being compelled to create new enemies instead of containing the war. The Black Sea is no longer a space where Moscow sets the rules, but one where Ukrainian pressure dictates Russian mistakes.

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