Russia adapts at sea as naval drones lose edge in the Black Sea

The Black Sea has become a proving ground for a rapidly evolving contest between offense and defense. Ukraine’s early success with low-cost naval drones disrupted Russian dominance and forced Moscow onto the defensive around Crimea. In response, Russia has adapted by building a layered counter-drone system that increasingly intercepts Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicles before they reach their targets. This shift has reduced the effectiveness of Ukraine’s most asymmetric maritime tool and allowed Russia to regain limited operational freedom near key ports and sea lanes. However, these gains rely on costly surveillance and interception cycles that are difficult to sustain at scale. As a result, control of the Black Sea is no longer fixed, but depends on which side can innovate faster and impose higher costs on the other.

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