Russia prepares for the 3rd Chechen war, as Ramzan Kadyrov’s health is failing

Russia’s grip on its most volatile regions depends less on institutions than on carefully managed personal rule. Nowhere is this more evident than in Chechnya, where stability has been enforced through fear, loyalty, and a single dominant figure rather than durable governance. As long as that figure remained fully in control, Moscow could treat the region as contained, if not truly integrated. The moment his authority weakens, however, long-suppressed rivalries and unresolved grievances begin to surface. This creates a dangerous vacuum in a republic with a history of violent resistance and armed power struggles. What is unfolding now tests whether Moscow can still dictate outcomes there, or whether its control was always more fragile than it appeared.

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