Kashmir Crisis: From Surgical Strikes to Open Warfare

Recently, Operation Sindoor has redefined India’s military posture across the Line of Control. The strikes were not just retaliation, they marked a dangerous new phase in a conflict shifting beyond proxy warfare and into confrontation.

The immediate trigger was the attack in Pahalgam, where gunmen opened fire on a tourist convoy, killing 26 civilians and injuring 42. The Resistance Front, linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility for this attack. Indian intelligence traced the plot to handlers in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and southern Punjab, and within hours, Delhi began preparing a coordinated cross-border strike. 

The goal of India is to restore deterrence by eliminating the infrastructure behind the Pahalgam attack. India also aimed to show that violence against civilians would trigger military retaliation, not diplomatic restraint. 

The reason why India wants to achieve this goal is that the attack directly challenged its narrative of control in Kashmir. Failing to respond would have made India appear weak, inviting more attacks and undercutting political stability. 

In order to achieve this goal, India launched strikes on nine targets across Pakistan. According to Indian sources, the sites include a TRF logistics node in Bhimber, a Lashkar camp near Muzaffarabad, a Jaish training facility in Kotli, an arms depot in Leepa Valley, a drone launch site near Athmuqam, a relay station South of Neelum, a recruitment center in Rawalakot, a weapons hub near Mirpur, and a Jaish leadership site in Bahawalpur.

Mirage two thousand and Su-thirty MKI’s carried out the strikes using stand-off missiles and precision-guided bombs, supported by electronic warfare aircraft. Satellite imagery and allied intelligenceconfirmed the presence of mid-level commanders at three sites. India prioritized striking Bhimber, Muzaffarabad, and Bahawalpur, with the whole operation lasting forty-five minutes. 

The result of these actions is a high-impact disruption of militant infrastructure. Indian officials reported over one hundred militants killed, including Abdul Rauf Azhar of Jaish-e-Mohammed. India framed the strikes not as retaliation, but as a message that this will be the standard way it responds going forward.

Pakistan began preparing a response within the hour, suggesting the retaliation was pre-planned. The goal of Pakistan is to impose costs on India while avoiding full-scale war. It sought to demonstrate that Indian strikes would be answered quickly and forcefully. The reason why Pakistan wants to achieve this goal is that doing nothing would make its army look weak at home. But with the economy in bad shape, it also couldn’t afford a long fight.

In order to achieve this goal, Pakistan launched artillery fire along the Line of Control and followed with missile strikes. Ra’ad cruise missiles and Nasr ballistic missiles targeted Indian bases near Kargil and Tangdhar.

India confirmed damage to the Kargil airbase and three soldiers killed. Pakistani air units also engaged Indian assets, claiming 5 jets and 1 drone shootdowns; India admitted to three losses of jets. Additional Pakistani troops were deployed to frontline sectors, and missile units were repositioned under camouflage near Rawalpindi. 

The result of these actions is a shift from proxy conflict to open military exchanges. Pakistan responded with speed and scale, signaling that retaliation had been pre-authorized. While no ground offensive followed, the military balance has hardened on both sides. 

Since the strikes, the situation has kept getting more dangerous. Within seventy-two hours after Sindoor, fire Incidents near the Line of Control more than tripled. India reported twelve soldiers killed and thirty-one wounded, while Pakistan claimed thirty-eight casualties.

Drone coverage is now deployed along the frontier, and both militaries have locked air defense systems onto opposing assets. India has raised its alert level across northern commands, while Pakistan has moved tactical missiles into a forward position. Despite the recent agreement to the ceasefire, the fire along the contact line continues, with both sides accusing each other of the violation.

Overall, both countries are under growing pressure to escalate further. India has shown it will not absorb major civilian attacks without a military response. Pakistan has shown it will meet that response with force. Both sides are under pressure to act, and the danger now comes less from what they want to do and more from a mistake or bad timing. With two nuclear powers involved, that is a serious risk.