Finally! Russian allies walk out of the room!

The Caucasus is undergoing its most dramatic realignment in decades, as Russia’s once-unquestioned energy dominance begins to collapse. For years, Moscow used oil and gas as both lifelines and levers of control, binding Armenia, Azerbaijan, and their neighbors into a web of dependency. Now, looming U.S. secondary sanctions threaten to turn that web into a trap, forcing former allies to choose between loyalty to the Kremlin and survival in the global economy. Armenia and Azerbaijan, once cornerstones of Russia’s regional strategy, are racing to rewire their economies toward Turkey and the West, signaling a decisive break from Moscow’s orbit. What was once a Russian sphere of influence is transforming into an arena of competing energy systems, green investments, and Western-backed infrastructure. In this shifting landscape, the Caucasus is no longer a buffer for Russian power—it is becoming the frontline of its unraveling.