India turns on Russia: Economic ties cut, oil ships are next

India’s role in the global sanctions environment is undergoing a quiet but consequential transformation, with implications far beyond bilateral trade. What was once a carefully balanced posture between strategic autonomy and economic pragmatism is now giving way to a more enforcement-aware approach at sea. For Russia, this represents a strategic shock, as one of the last major non-Western outlets for sanctioned energy begins to close its legal and operational loopholes. The importance of this shift lies not in any single detention or contract decision, but in how it alters risk calculations across the Indian Ocean. Maritime enforcement is no longer confined to Europe’s periphery, but is starting to extend into routes Russia assumed would remain permissive. Against this backdrop, the relationship between India and Russia is entering a phase defined less by partnership and more by leverage, exposure, and constraint.

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