The European Union moves toward a full export ban as enforcement hardens

Europe’s sanctions regime against Russian oil is entering a credibility phase, where the gap between legal authority and actual enforcement is becoming impossible to ignore. What once functioned as a deterrence-by-compliance model now depends almost entirely on whether states are willing to accept the political and legal costs of action at sea. Maritime chokepoints, insurance regimes, and service dependencies give Europe structural leverage that has long existed on paper but remained underused in practice. As Russia adapts by concentrating exports into predictable routes and relying on shadow shipping networks, the effectiveness of half-measures steadily erodes. This creates a strategic dilemma: either enforcement becomes routine, or the entire framework risks being seen as symbolic. Against this backdrop, the current policy debate signals a shift from managing compliance to forcing a binary choice between action and open violation.

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