Russia's Mini-Missile Gamble Against Ukraine’s Drone Blitz

Russia’s air defenses are under unprecedented pressure from Ukraine’s increasingly sophisticated and abundant drone campaigns. Faced with constant swarms targeting energy, military, and dual-use infrastructure, Moscow is searching for cost-effective solutions to blunt the impact of attritional drone warfare. The rollout of mini-missiles for the Pantsir system represents a shift toward scalable, modular defenses intended to counter repeated UAV waves without exhausting strategic interceptors. Yet this adaptation comes amid structural limitations, as Russia has only a fraction of the launchers needed to provide comprehensive coverage. At the same time, Ukraine continues to expand production of cheap, long-range strike drones, ensuring that quantity and persistence remain on its side. The contest over drone attrition is now a battle of industrial output, tactical innovation, and speed of adaptation, with each side racing to impose unsustainable costs on the other.

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