Turkey actually did it: Russia backs down from the Black Sea

The Black Sea has become a critical testing ground where military signaling, deterrence, and resolve matter more than isolated incidents. Russia has increasingly used this space to probe limits, intimidate neighbors, and pressure Ukraine’s supporters without crossing clear red lines. Such behavior relies on hesitation, delayed responses, and the assumption that warnings will remain rhetorical. For Nato members on the Black Sea, allowing that dynamic to persist would mean surrendering initiative and letting Moscow set the tempo. The question is no longer about reacting to individual violations, but about whether access itself can be denied. Turkey’s response shows how control is established when deterrence is enforced continuously rather than episodically.

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