Putin not satisfied with just Donbas: all reserves deployed for Zaporizhia offensive

Today, the biggest news comes from the Huliaipole direction.

Russian forces are currently reinforcing the Huliaipole axis in order to try to break the Ukrainian defense in this sector. Russia’s advantage in manpower is four to one across the wider axis and up to seven to one in the most threatened sectors. This troop concentration indicates that Russia regards the Huliaipole direction as one of its most important fronts. Here, Russia is using its usual infiltration tactics of sending one to three soldiers at a time, who try to get behind Ukrainian lines and accumulate there, while the use of armored vehicles is minimal. To support its infiltration efforts, Russia deployed three elite Rubicon drone units, which are being rotated through the area to try to cover a wider section of the frontline.

Long-term, Russia wants to capture the left-bank part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including Zaporizhzhia city, the regional capital. Russia currently controls approximately seventy-five percent of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, while this figure was around seventy-three percent after the Ukrainian counteroffensive in two thousand and twenty-three. Based on this statistic and their rate of advance this year, which dropped to almost zero in this sector, it is highly unlikely that Russia can achieve its goal. Notably, Russia advanced more than twenty kilometers in two thousand and twenty-five and, by the end of the year, captured Huliaipole. However, their rate of advance dropped to ten kilometers in two thousand and twenty-six. Given this, it would take seven years for Russia to reach Zaporizhzhia city.

In the short term, the Russian high command has tasked its forces to advance thirty kilometers from Huliaipole by the end of October. This move would allow them to encircle Orikhiv from the north and cut it off from supplies. Given that Orikhiv is the main supply hub for the Ukrainians here, holding their defense south of the town would be significantly more difficult in case Russia manages to take Orikhiv under its control. However, this goal is also highly unlikely to be achieved in the near future as Russia struggles to make meaningful territorial gains west of Huliaipole.

Notably, the main Ukrainian defense line runs there, which took the Russians approximately eight months to gain a relatively small foothold over it. It consists of extensive anti-tank ditches, dragon’s teeth obstacles, and a series of lines of barbed wire. This is why Russia cannot conduct mechanized assaults here and is forced to rely on infiltrations. Despite getting through the first defense line, Russia still cannot use vehicles to supply its advancing forces or conduct assaults because it couldn’t dismantle the defense line enough to make it easier to pass. After getting through the defense line, which is still constantly monitored by Ukrainian drones, Russian infiltration groups have to go through vast open fields, which are mined. As a result of these conditions, Russia can barely advance here, while its losses are mounting, which has forced it to redeploy troops to try to break the deadlock.

Overall, Russia’s decision to redeploy additional troops and rotate elite Rubicon drone units to the Huliaipole direction shows that its current tactics are failing to deliver the breakthrough the high command needs. The extensive Ukrainian fortifications, mined open fields, and constant drone surveillance mean that even if Russia redeploys troops here, they will face the same challenges that their comrades failed to overcome. This creates a costly cycle in which Russia must commit more manpower to achieve limited gains, potentially weakening other sectors as troops are diverted to sustain the offensive here. Unless Russian forces find a way to overcome these logistical and defensive obstacles, their ambitions to encircle Orikhiv and eventually reach Zaporizhzhia city will remain far beyond their current capabilities.