Iran’s fate is sealed: Riots spiral out of control, the age of autocracies collapses

Iran is entering a convergence point where internal instability and external pressure are reinforcing each other rather than remaining separate challenges. Years of confrontation abroad have narrowed Tehran’s diplomatic options at the very moment when domestic control is becoming harder to sustain. The regime has long relied on repression at home and deterrence abroad to compensate for economic weakness, but both pillars are now under strain simultaneously. As unrest spreads across social, geographic, and ideological lines, the question is no longer whether protests can be suppressed locally, but whether the state can still absorb cumulative shocks. At the same time, Iran’s strategic environment offers no reliable external backstop, only rivals waiting to exploit weakness. This combination places the Islamic Republic in a rare strategic deadlock, where every available response carries the risk of accelerating decline rather than restoring stability.

‍