Russia’s two-pronged Orikhiv assault collapses as Ukrainian drones dominate

Today, the biggest news comes from the Orikhiv direction.

Here, Russian forces have launched wave after wave of mechanized assaults to break into the village from all sides. With the approaches lined with burnt-out wrecks and bodies, Russian commanders now attempted to distract the defenders first, just to see them hunted down as they were blinded by the confidence in their own plan.

Russia’s goal here is to pin the Ukrainian defenders down in Orikhiv, which would allow other forces to outflank the larger Zaporizhia defense lines from the east. Furthermore, the Russians need to capture Orikhiv to be able to conduct further attacks northward. By taking Orikhiv under control, Russia could use it as a staging ground to amass troops and equipment and use the settlement as a springboard to assault towards Komyshuvakha.

Russia is conducting mechanized assaults in this direction along multiple vectors. Their previous attacks towards Mala Tokmachka failed, so the Russian command decided to change tactics and assault from 2 sides at the same time; one distracts in the south, while the main one in the east makes it through. In this instance, the Russian assault originating from the south was intended primarily as a diversionary effort, designed to draw Ukrainian attention and resources away from the area to facilitate the landing of additional Russian troops at Mala Tokmachka, so they can overwhelm the town’s defenses.

If we look at the topographic map, we can see that Russia’s main advantage in this direction is that its forces control key elevations south of Orikhiv. These provide better signal propagation for the Russian drones, valuable observation points, and improved fields of fire over the Ukrainian defenders in Novodanylivka and Mala Tokmachka, which are located on lower ground.

The Ukrainian 65th and 118th Mechanized Brigades are deployed to the south of Orikhiv; however, they cannot concentrate their forces directly on the front line because the Russians would relentlessly bomb them with drone strikes.

However, because of their confidence that their plan would work, the Russians assumed they would make it to Mala Tokmachka unharmed and did not change their assault tactics much. In this sector, the terrain consists of expansive open fields with sparse tree lines, which, together with a high density of trench fortifications, enable Ukrainian forces to disperse rather than concentrate along the frontline. Additionally, Ukrainians keep many of them, while their troops on the frontline are staying hidden to avoid Russian strikes. Although the terrain limits natural cover for defenders, it likewise leaves advancing Russian forces exposed. Lastly, the open fields are scattered with landmines due to the main Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive taking place here, forcing Russians to stick to the roads, and because of the lack of cover, the Ukrainian reconnaissance drones can detect the Russians kilometers behind the frontline.

Footage captured by Ukrainian FPV drones demonstrates a clear image, indicating that Russians failed to jam Ukrainian drones properly. The Russian diversion attack in the south didn’t pose a significant threat, as it consisted of a tank and an MTLB, which is why it was let through initially.

Especially as Ukrainian drone reconnaissance detected the much larger Russian mechanized assault in the east already on the approach, consisting of multiple armored vehicles, allowing this assault to receive Ukrainian drone operators’ full attention. After the main attack in the east was stopped and subsequently destroyed by FPV drones, drone units reoriented and targeted the retreating armor in the south so it couldn’t be used again in further attacks.

However, even though the southern thrust was let through and managed to deploy forces, because it was the diversion Russians only numbered a small assault group. As a result, Ukrainian units in the rear managed to quickly envelop and eliminate any troops the attack managed to deploy. At the end of the day, the Ukrainians managed to destroy 8 pieces of equipment and 28 enemy personnel, with many Russian soldiers from the eastern attack retreating immediately after their vehicles were destroyed, still kilometers away from their final target.

Overall, Russians changed their approach from previous assaults and launched a diversionary assault first, but they were outsmarted by the Ukrainians and eventually fell victim to their own hubris. If Russians continue taking too many high losses in the south, their pinning effort will collapse before the outflanking operation can achieve all its goals. If that happens, the whole plan will unravel, and Ukrainians can concentrate all their forces on dealing a defeat in detail to the two-pronged Russian offensive. Notably, if either the pinning effort or the outflanking effort fails, the other will meet the same fate and be subsequently neutralized, doubling Russia’s losses.