Ukrainians are making gains as Russia loses its staging ground

Today, the biggest news is coming from the Dnipropetrovsk direction.

Here, the secret Ukrainian counteroffensive has been underway and making rapid gains in the southeast. With Russians desperately trying to keep Ukrainian successes quiet, a complete informational blackout is in place from both sides, with only the slightest hints at the true scale of the situation on the frontline.

Most notably, three significant Ukrainian advances have been confirmed in this sector. The first, Ukrainians have fully cleared the grey zone after Russians reinfiltrated following past Ukrainian successes here. Second, Ukrainians have fully liberated the town and the approaches of Shevchenko, securing Ukrainian gains made earlier this year in the now-rear. Lastly and most significantly, Ukrainians have pushed back Russian lines in the center, and made a breakthrough into the Russian staging ground of Komar itself. Crossing the Mokri Yaly River, Ukrainians now have a foothold across it within a built up settlement. Komar is the largest town along this river, and in turn has served as an important Russian staging ground for their past offensives toward the Vovcha River earlier this year. The other towns are too small and have too little intact for Russians to stage any meaningful forces and logistics there. Ukrainians managing to break into this town has therefore cut a major advantage out from under the Russian force grouping in the area.

What this now means is that supplies and reinforcements have to be stored and transported all the way from Velika Novosilka to the Russian frontline. This trip spans seventeen kilometers or ten miles along a route well within Ukrainian drones’ operating range. Ukrainians in turn experience much easier logistics here. The Ukrainian river crossings to the west are surrounded by forests that provide cover, both for storage and transport across the water. Additionally, while Russians trying to avoid the main roads are forced through open fields, the fields on the Ukrainian side are covered with tree farms. This means much more hardened roads able to bare the weight of heavy equipment, along with a huge amount of concealment to store supplies and soldiers extremely close to the frontline.

Looking back at the situation on the ground, there is no clear information on the state of the ongoing battles for Komar. However, Russian high command has recently found it necessary to release footage of several flag planting videos within the southern part of the town alone. As Russian commanders mainly rely on these flag planting videos as damage control in the media space, it is good to say that the situation for Russian forces in Komar is less than ideal. In turn, Ukrainians have released footage showing a massive series of airstrikes hitting Russian force concentrations and logistics depots in the town of Velyka Novosilka. As these GBU thirty-nine glide bombs are GPS guided, and all six of them seem to have it large intact buildings directly, it is highly likely that Ukrainians are conducting full air strike barrages on Russian strongpoints in the town.

Overall, Ukrainians have made a significantly important step in the process of pushing Russians back in the southeastern sector at Komar. Crossing the River into the town itself puts Russian logistics under immense pressure through deep Ukrainian fire control and extremely disadvantageous terrain. These disadvantages are becoming worse as autumn rains arrive on the front, further restricting Russian maneuverability. If Ukrainians manage to keep up their pressure, Russians lines will continue to be pushed further back, and reduces any Russian hope of regaining a presence in the Dnipropetrovsk region to zero.