GOOD NEWS: Ukrainians encircle Russian attack force near Lyman

Today, there are important updates from the Liman direction.

Here, Ukrainian forces have finally managed to cut off the Russian salient west of the Zherbets River by advancing from two sides. As a result, Russian forces are now pinned down in an area without being able to move in reinforcements or evacuate to the east.

Ukrainian counterattacks against both flanks of the Russian salient have narrowed the corridor connecting the Russian spearhead with its rear, leaving it dangerously exposed. Satellite imagery indicates Russian forces are already withdrawing from parts of the western salient around Shandryholove, as elements of Russia’s Second and One-Hundred-Forty-Fourth Motor Rifle Divisions now face a difficult choice: retreat east with limited chance of success or risk losing additional forces as Ukraine tightens its pressure.

The northern flank has deteriorated particularly rapidly, as Ukrainian units have gradually consolidated strongpoints between Nove and Katerynivka. Recent assaults expanded this foothold, with subsequent Russian strike footage itself indicating Ukrainian activity in areas previously under enemy control. Ukraine’s Third Corps then pushed south toward Kolodiazi, and Ukrainian troops captured an important tactical strongpoint in the forest belt north of the settlement, opening approaches toward northwestern Kolodiazi and western Ivanivka. Crucially, this advance allowed Ukrainian forces to cut the Kolodiazi-Ivanivka road completely, while simultaneously Russian forces inside Kolodiazi came under pressure from the south, creating multi-vector threats against the Russian bridgehead.

The southern flank, where Kolodiazi is located, is collapsing under similar pressure, as Ukrainian units counterattacked north of Stavky, and even Russian sources have acknowledged the increasingly dangerous situation, complaining that the entire bridgehead west of the Zherebets has become extremely difficult to sustain and is effectively cut off from the Russian mainland.

As a result, Ukraine has effectively cut the area around Shandryholove off from reliable logistical support. In an attempt to relieve the situation, Russian forces continue striking Ukrainian supply routes, but artillery and drones cannot solve Russia’s fundamental problem: its forward troops need ammunition, food, reinforcements, and casualty evacuation routes of their own.

Footage from the area illustrates what Russian logistics now face, as Russian soldiers attempting to recover wounded troops and bodies must travel along a route repeatedly targeted by Ukrainian drones. What should be a supply road has effectively become a road of death, as everyone moving toward the salient risks detection and destruction, making reinforcement increasingly expensive and evacuation equally dangerous.

However, Ukraine faces its own danger, as the advances forming the pincer are relatively narrow, meaning commanders cannot simply race forward chasing retreating Russians. Narrow penetrations can themselves become vulnerable to counterattacks against their flanks. Ukrainian forces therefore need to widen their gains, consolidate captured strongpoints, and establish secure logistics before attempting deeper exploitation or starting to systematically eliminate isolated Russian groups in the cut-off western part of the salient.

Overall, after Russia consequently risked watching its most important breakthrough in this sector dissolve, Ukrainian pressure from two sides has transformed the Russian offensive spearhead into a liability that is about to turn catastrophic. Eliminating that salient would push Russian forces back toward the river and destroy months of accumulated progress. However, this development also has strategic importance for Liman itself, because if Ukraine consolidates these gains, Russia’s northern pincer to encircle the city will effectively be broken, freeing Ukrainian resources to reinforce the city and concentrate increasingly on pushing back the Russian pincer approaching from the south.