SHELL SUPPLY AT ALL-TIME HIGH! Ukrainians Secure 1 Year Worth of Ammunition!

Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from Ukraine.

Here, Europe’s promise to arm Ukraine with two million artillery shells in 2025 was ambitious, but now it is ahead of schedule, with two-thirds already delivered in just four months. Sourced from both EU partners and global allies, the Ukrainian armed forces will soon experience a massive influx of artillery ammunition right before the massive planned Russian summer offensive. 

The European Union aims to deliver at least two million artillery shells to Ukraine this year, having already supplied two-thirds ahead of schedule. Although EU states have expanded domestic production, only about 25% of the shells come from the EU’s domestic military-industrial base. The rest are sourced externally, primarily from South Korean and South African defense firms like Hanwha and Denel. Since the EU budget cannot be used for direct arms purchases, funding is channeled through the European Peace Facility and returns from reinvested frozen Russian assets.

Despite its reliance on external suppliers, the EU is accelerating its artillery production through the Act in Support of Ammunition Production, which was signed in March of last year. 

The initiative targets an annual output of 2 million domestically produced shells by 2025. It provides grants to EU defense manufacturers to expand capacity, resolve supply chain issues, and ensure the timely delivery of munitions to both Ukraine and EU member states. As part of this effort, new production facilities have already been launched in Germany, France, Sweden, and Romania.

Czechia, operating independently from the EU, launched its own artillery shell supply initiative in 2024 with NATO backing. In its first year, the program delivered over 1.5 million shells to Ukraine. Czech officials expect to match or exceed that number in 2025, thanks to new contracts boosting investment and expanding production capacity. Interestingly, Czechia has focused on coordinating and financing rather than manufacturing, sourcing shells from a global network that includes suppliers in Turkey, Poland, Norway, India, and Australia.

The EU has already provided over two-thirds of the number of artillery shells they promised, so their goal of providing two million shells by the end of the year is almost guaranteed. Besides them, domestic Ukrainian production currently produces two and a half million artillery shells annually, with all programmes combined, Ukraine will produce and recieve approximately over six million artillery shells this year.

This safely supports all of Ukraine's artillery needs, and provided shells translate to roughly 500 thousand shells per month, which can easily sustain the current fire rates of the Ukrainian forces. Currently, Ukrainians consume approximately 150 to 200 thousand artillery shells per month to counter current Russian assaults along the entire frontline. During massive offensive and defensive operations, this number can rise to 600 thousand per month, such as during the Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive.

Currently, Russia’s artillery campaign outnumbers Ukraine in both consumption and production. In 2024, Russia fired up to 7 million rounds, an average of around 600 thousand shells per month. However, they heavily rely on the North Korean supply of artillery shells that make up over fifty percent of the Russian artillery consumption per month, meaning Russia cannot sustain its usage through domestic production alone. 

Still, Ukrainians found a way to compensate for their artillery disadvantage, conserving shells when not absolutely necessary to build up a substantial reserve. This allows them to ramp up their fire rate during more intense Russian offensives to lower the Russian artillery superiority to a ratio of 2:1, as their current fire rate allows Ukrainians to build up a shell reserve of over 300 thousand shells a month. 

Overall, the swift delivery of artillery shells from the EU and the Czech Republic enables the Ukrainians to gradually reduce their artillery disadvantage as the production capacities of Ukraine and its allies grow faster than anyone anticipated. With production figures for 2025 doubling compared to last year, Ukrainians might have as many as 10 million artillery shells available by 2026, neutralizing the Russian artillery advantage. While current production numbers are already providing the Ukrainian armed forces a significant boost to their combat capabilities, smart expenditure will allow Ukraine to completely annihilate any larger Russian offensives they are planning for their summer campaign.