Armenia will be free: Russians kicked out from Armenia

Today, there are interesting updates from Armenia.

Here, the Russian hold on Armenia collapses, with the country pursuing a path towards freedom from Russian influence. However, as Russia still has military personnel in Armenia to use as a tool to exert pressure, the Russians are now being finally kicked out.

Recently, Armenia has confirmed the withdrawal of Russian forces from several key positions near the border with Azerbaijan. Simultaneously, control of the border crossing with Iran was also transferred to Armenian border guards.

Previously, this checkpoint was controlled solely by Russian border guards, with Armenia represented only by customs officers. Now, Russian military personnel have left their posts and have effectively lost their former authority. Notably, the former joint patrols appear to have functioned largely as a symbolic security arrangement to keep the semblance of cooperation.

At the same time, the overall number of Russian Armed Forces personnel stationed in Armenia has been reduced by about 50 percent. Russian radar units from the Martuni area near Lake Sevan, which were responsible for monitoring Armenian airspace and transmitting data to Armenian authorities, have also withdrawn from their positions.

Russian border guards were additionally denied access to the Margar checkpoint on the Armenian-Turkish border, while the number of Russian FSB personnel deployed along that border has been steadily reduced in recent years. Additionally, several of the most strategically important border posts, including the Akhurik checkpoint on the Armenian-Turkish border and the Agarak crossing on the Armenian-Iranian border, are also no longer under the control of the Russian FSB. These crossings handle key economic flows and serve as critical transit points for Armenia’s trade and communications with Iran, and potentially with Turkey in the future. As part of the process of Armenia taking back the border control, Russian military personnel have also recently withdrawn from the Zvartnots Airport in the capital Yerevan.

Armenia’s idea to scale down military cooperation with Russia and decrease dependence is even more visible if we take a look at Armenia's air defense architecture. Notably, at the joint air-defense control center, Armenian personnel have refused to share radar data with their Russian counterparts and now communicate exclusively in Armenian to exclude the Russians. Although Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated recently that the Russian base does not currently interfere with the European aspirations of Armenia, he hinted that this position could change in the future, hinting at a potential breakaway from Russian influence.

At the same time, new positions are being prepared in the Syunik region along the Iranian border to host American air-defense specialists tasked with monitoring Iranian activities, particularly missile launches. This development is widely seen as a key reason behind the rapid withdrawal of Russian Armed Forces units from several locations in the country and a clear transition to a partnership with Western countries.

This underlines how the Russian security umbrella in the South Caucasus is eroding steadily, while other players are gaining influence. For decades, Moscow relied on military bases, border guards, and integrated air-defense systems to maintain dominance in a region it has historically viewed as its sphere of influence, being previously part of the Soviet Union.

Armenia’s gradual dismantling of past arrangements signals a significant shift in the regional balance of power. As Yerevan asserts greater control over its borders and defense infrastructure while exploring closer ties with Western partners, Russia is losing control and influence over the region.

This gradual Russian withdrawal appears to be only the beginning, as Armenia’s leadership has grown doubtful of Moscow’s reliability as a security guarantor, particularly after Russia never really tried to prevent Azerbaijan from taking military action against Armenia. Political developments suggest that Armenia is preparing for a decisive strategic break with Russia, even while maintaining the outward appearance of a partial and limited cooperation to avoid provoking an immediate confrontation.

Overall, Russia’s presence in Armenia has been decreasing for years, and with a military withdrawal from Armenia now underway, and American involvement gradually filling parts of the emerging security gap, the complete expulsion of Russia seems inevitable. Moscow is increasingly unable to maintain dominance even in what it has long considered its backyard, reinforcing the perception of Russia as a former global power.

As a result, Armenia is likely to seek more reliable security partners and distance itself from Russia even more, after the Russian ability to exert influence has been significantly weakened by its war in Ukraine.