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Today, the biggest news comes from the Russian Federation.
A record one hundred and thirteen thousand Russians just fled to Georgia through the southern Russian border, as fears of a new massive Russian mobilization rapidly spread.
Russian citizens are afraid of mobilization because leaked information, visible preparations, and statements from officials all point toward a larger recruitment campaign. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Putin will intensify mobilization after the State Duma elections in September, although the Kremlin continues to deny any such plans.
Russian military analysts also report that the authorities are preparing to cut off the internet immediately after the elections to prevent panic, restrict the circulation of mobilization videos, and make it harder for Russians to share information about a new call-up. Russian military bloggers have gone even further, reporting that as many as one point two million people will be called up for mobilization in two thousand twenty-six and in two thousand twenty-seven. The speculation intensified when Russian Army General and State Duma deputy Andrei Gurulov revealed on Telegram that preparations for an autumn mobilization were already underway. He quickly reversed course and claimed that his account had been hacked, but his statement added to growing fears that preparations are happening behind the scenes.
What is even more visible and proves what Russia is preparing for is the fact that the Kremlin is also conducting mobilization drills designed to test how quickly the country can process and train large numbers of recruits. As part of these preparations, military training grounds are being set up to accommodate tens of thousands of new people for accelerated training before they are sent toward the front. According to the Center for Strategic and Political Studies, Putin is simultaneously preparing Russia’s national guard, the Rosgvardia, to deal with potential unrest during a general mobilization. This is another important indicator, as there were violent clashes last time in two thousand twenty-two, when Russia mobilized three hundred thousand soldiers. This is exactly what the Kremlin wants to suppress before it threatens the stability of the Russian Federation.
Russia needs to mobilize more soldiers because hundreds of thousands of rubles are not enough anymore to attract enough volunteers. Because of this, recruitment has been falling this year, and the size of the Russian army has been shrinking every month by thousands of soldiers. According to Nato intelligence, recruitment rates in the first quarter have fallen to eight hundred people per day, which is no longer enough to cover losses on the front lines as Russia loses approximately one thousand and four hundred soldiers per day. Despite the heavy losses, Russia still possesses a manpower advantage over Ukraine, which continues to face its own shortage of personnel. Moscow therefore sees additional hundreds of thousands of soldiers as the key to turning that advantage into a breakthrough. The objective is to generate enough additional troops to overwhelm Ukrainian defensive positions and seize the Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donbas and be able to maintain offensive operations in other sectors. However, more soldiers require more supplies, further straining Russia’s logistics, which are already uыnder enormous pressure because of Ukrainian middle-range strikes. Sending hundreds of thousands of additional men into the war without providing stable logistics will cause even greater casualties.
To avoid being sent to the frontline, already more than one hundred thousand Russians decided to leave the country. During the partial mobilization in two thousand and twenty-two, approximately one million Russians fled. This suggests that this year, another mobilization will create another massive population exodus, greatly exceeding the current one hundred and ten thousand figure.
Overall, if volunteers are no longer joining fast enough, Moscow will be forced to choose between unpopular conscription and accepting slower offensives. At the same time, a mass exodus will remove workers, weaken the economy, and increase domestic instability. This means that mobilization will strengthen Russia’s army while simultaneously weakening Russia itself.
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