NEW: Ukrainian forces encircle Russian soldiers at Lyman

Today, Ukrainian forces finally tightened the Russian salient northwest of Lyman by attacking the positions that protect its connection to the rest of the front. A major Ukrainian breakthrough developed around Novoselivka, where troops pushed into Shandryholove and Derylove, placing the Russian positions around Yarova under direct threat from the flank. Russian forces answered by advancing north of Serednye toward Karpivka, slightly widening the neck of the salient and temporarily improving the connection to the forward grouping. That move gave Russia more space to sustain the position, but Ukrainian forces were already threatening the corridor behind Yarova that connected the forward troops to the rest of the front. If Ukrainian forces continue expanding around Shandryholove and Derylove, the Russian troops deeper inside the salient will have fewer secure routes for reinforcement, resupply, and withdrawal. The Russian advance north of Lyman is now developing into a trap, with the troops at the front increasingly dependent on a corridor that Ukrainian forces are attacking from both sides.

The danger around the salient is now serious enough that even Russian analysts are sounding the alarm. Russian analysts have warned that the northern flank around Lyman is becoming increasingly dangerous and could create major problems for the Russian grouping. They also acknowledge that the battlefield has become difficult to control, as dispersed frontline positions, extensive forests, and the movement of small groups make it harder to establish firm control across the area. As a result, Russian commanders struggle to determine which positions remain secure and where Ukrainian troops may already be threatening routes behind the line. Concern also extends beyond the troops holding the bulge itself, with problems around Lyman seen as a threat to Russian forces operating in neighboring sectors.

Despite these warnings, Russian command has continued sending more troops toward Yarova, deeper inside the threatened salient, instead of reinforcing the areas around Kolodyazi and Shandryholove where Ukrainian forces are pressing against the neck of the position. This means every additional unit sent toward Yarova becomes dependent on a corridor that Ukraine is already trying to constrict. At the same time, Ukrainian pressure on the routes toward Serednye and Yarova intensified, reducing the area Russian forces could safely maintain deeper inside the salient. Russian troops were pushed out of or withdrew from Yarova, and infiltration routes toward Pryshyb were also abandoned. These withdrawals show that the Russian response has failed to secure the forward positions it was trying to reinforce, while Ukraine continues attacking the access that keeps the salient viable.

If Ukrainian forces collapse the salient, Russia would face a choice between withdrawing from a much larger area northwest of Lyman or trying to hold increasingly isolated positions under growing encirclement risk. Either outcome could turn the problem around Yarova into a wider crisis across the northern approach to the city. A Russian withdrawal from the salient would remove the forward presence around Yarova and Serednye and shorten the line Ukraine has to contain north of the city. Ukrainian forces are already improving their position inside Lyman itself, where clearing operations have retaken the hospital and reduced Russian control in the urban area. South of the city, Ukrainian troops have also expanded from Ozerne toward Dibrova, adding pressure on the approaches around Lyman. Together, these developments would leave Russia operating from a less favorable position across several approaches to Lyman at once. Russian analysts are already warning that serious problems in the Lyman sector could create difficulties on neighboring axes. A collapse of the salient could add to that pressure by forcing Russia to commit manpower and resources to stabilizing a new defensive line. 

Overall, the Ukrainian pincer around Lyman is increasingly forcing Russia toward a choice between abandoning the salient or risking more troops inside an increasingly vulnerable position. Sending additional units deeper only makes any later retreat more costly as the corridor behind them comes under greater pressure. If Russia pulls back, Ukraine could gain greater freedom to consolidate the recaptured area and potentially shift additional pressure toward the next Russian defensive positions once the new line is secured. That would give Ukrainian forces more options beyond the salient, while forcing Russia to stabilize a new defensive line under continued pressure.