Russia threatens Poland with complete annihilation

Today, the biggest news comes from the Russian Federation.

Russia recently threatened Poland directly with complete and utter destruction. Patrushev, aide to Putin himself,  stated that Poland will cease to exist in two to three days if it ever enters the war. His statement drew both harsh criticism and ridicule, with many comparing it to Russia’s officially stated goal of capturing Kyiv and Ukraine in only three days at the outbreak of the full-scale invasion.

However, this was followed by Russian threats of accidentally striking Polish infrastructure with new Geran five cruise missiles. As Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk cited intelligence reports stating that Russia has genuine plans to carry out kinetic attacks using real drones and missiles against countries that continue to support Ukraine, earlier Russian threats of annihilation seem all too real. 

Russian military analysts have repeatedly identified Poland as the most crucial supporting state for Ukraine. Polish officials themselves confirm that over ninety percent of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine flows through Polish infrastructure. With delivery estimates totaling around two billion dollars’ worth of military equipment each month, Poland is one of Ukraine’s most important lifelines in the war.

Russian war planners have made real efforts to devise such an operation. Specifically, they discuss the use of the new mass-produced Russian Geran five cruise missile drones for this task. With a range of nine hundred fifty kilometers and a speed of up to six hundred kilometers an hour, nearly all of Poland is within range of these Russian weapons that even Ukraine struggles to take down. However, even when adhering to more realistic flight plans over Ukraine or the Baltic Sea, Russia could still use these drones to strike as far as Gdansk or Warsaw itself. Russian military observers describe that Polish trains, warehouses, repair sites, airfields, ports, and fuel depots directly serve the Ukrainian war machine and allow Ukraine to continue fighting, and are therefore valid military targets that are within Russian range to strike.

While kinetic strikes seem the furthest away from the hybrid warfare that Russia is currently waging against Europe, the clandestine nature is that Russia would declare these attacks as random accidents, false flag attacks, or blame Ukrainian air defense. This is precisely what Russia has been doing for several years now, with increasing quantity and intensity in recent months; a prominent example being the failed FPV kamikaze drone strike on a Ukrainian cargo plane carrying military supplies at Leipzig airport.

The Russian goal is for this probable ambiguity to divide Nato members and prevent a collective response or counter-strike, gradually wearing down the viability of a future Article Five declaration as Russia’s hybrid war moves towards becoming conventional. As Russia is scaling up its efforts and daring to push the red line further and further, the intelligence reports warning of kinetic Russian strikes on Polish infrastructure supporting Ukraine are not as far-fetched as they may initially seem. This is why Poland, together with other Baltic states, has significantly tightened security around critical infrastructure against possible drone strikes. Directly deploying military personnel to help secure LNG and oil terminals and port infrastructure, power and hydro plants, airports, and more.

In the end, while Russian threats of Warsaw in three days may seem absurd, they are hiding an increasingly aggressive stance. Active threats, enhanced strike capabilities, and hybrid warfare that toes the line of real acts of war are making these scenarios a real possibility. As the defense of the European continent becomes more reliant on the ability to counter the new ways of modern warfare, along with the weapons and methods necessary, Ukraine’s role in this becomes increasingly important. Nato must work closely with its ally currently fighting against the Russian invasion and take real action in implementing the lessons learned, if it wants to undermine Russia’s ability to threaten the security of European states at all.