Russian anger grows: to launch kinetic strikes on factories producing weapons for Ukraine

In this video, we will analyze how Russia is preparing for the next stage of the war.

Here, Russia is set to expand its war directly onto the next Western countries in line, and the reported attack can vary from a conventional invasion to a series of precise strikes on key facilities. With dozens of Western companies producing weapons for Ukraine’s defense industrial base, the Russian Ministry of Defense has already established a list of legitimate Ukrainian targets inside Europe.

A recently released report cited US intelligence warnings to Poland that Russia is considering an armed provocation within only a few months’ time to test Nato’s response and resolve. Scenarios include drones striking critical infrastructure, air strikes, sabotage, or even a limited ground invasion from Belarus or Kaliningrad. Russia could seek to invade a limited area of Nato territory, creating an immediate crisis without committing to a full-scale invasion. Moscow could then offer to withdraw in exchange for political concessions, such as reduced military support for Ukraine, presenting the return of Nato territory as the price for forcing Western governments to scale back their involvement in the war. Another particularly dangerous possibility is an escalation against factories and companies producing weapons or components for Ukraine.

Such an operation would fit Russia’s limitations, as its army remains engaged in Ukraine and lacks the capacity for a full-scale war against Nato. This shouldn't be underestimated, though, as destroying an ammunition plant, drone factory, electronics supplier, or logistics facility is well within the Russian capacity and could directly damage Ukrainian military capabilities. Additionally, Moscow can easily use recruited agents, incendiary devices, cyberattacks, sabotage teams, or the infamous unidentified drones, then deny any responsibility. The objective would be to destroy weapons before they reach Ukraine while testing whether Nato treats an ambiguous attack on a Ukraine-related factory as an attack on Poland itself.

This issue for Russia has been developing for years, as Ukrainian and European defense industries are becoming increasingly integrated. Ukraine now purchases ammunition, components, and weapons directly from European manufacturers, while allied governments finance Ukrainian production through various support mechanisms. Additionally, Ukrainian companies themselves are opening factories and joint ventures in Germany, Britain, Denmark, the Netherlands, Poland, and elsewhere throughout Europe.

For Russia, this creates a serious strategic problem, as Moscow can launch missiles against a drone factory inside Ukraine, but if the same production line is located on Nato territory, attacking it risks confrontation with the entire alliance. Ukrainian battlefield-tested designs are increasingly combined with European capital, electronics, engines, software, and manufacturing capacity to swing the war in Ukraine’s favor. Most importantly, this production is becoming dispersed, scalable, and increasingly difficult for Russia to destroy.

Russia has therefore started openly tracking this Ukrainian-aligned industrial network inside Europe, with the Russian Ministry of Defense publishing numerous pages of addresses of European facilities allegedly involved in producing or supplying weapons to Ukraine. Moscow has described Europe as Ukraine’s strategic rear, while Russian officials have openly suggested that companies supporting Ukrainian weapons production should become legitimate military targets for Russia to strike.

The mapped network includes drone developers, software companies, engine manufacturers, electronics suppliers, and producers of guidance systems. Even though some of the published addresses has already proven to be inaccurate, Russia's intention was for European companies to know that they were being watched and could potentially be the target of an imminent Russian strike.

This has not been just a target development or threatening rhetoric, but has been accompanied by broader military signaling. Russia has conducted Iskander strike exercises while state media emphasized the system’s ability to attack European airfields, headquarters, air defenses, and defense industry infrastructure. The fact that Russia is openly preparing for such a scenario makes the danger that Moscow can openly launch an Iskander ballistic missile at a Polish factory much more plausible, especially with the history of Russian escalation against Western weapon factories so far, which has already involved explosions, arson, cyberattacks, and poisonings of company officials in the ongoing Russian hybrid warfare campaign.

Overall, Russia’s threats against the West are no longer merely rhetorical. The US intelligence warning suggests that Washington considers an armed provocation against Poland or Nato’s eastern flank a serious possibility, and publishing the addresses of companies producing weapons for Ukraine is one element of this escalation. Mapping their supply chains and rehearsing strikes against European target types is another. Russian preparations show that if threats fail to stop Europe from arming Ukraine, Moscow may be preparing to test whether attacking the weapons factories themselves can succeed.