Residents in the Russian border regions will end up freezing to death if Putin continues the war

Today, the biggest news comes from the Russian Federation.

Russia’s border regions are effectively being threatened every single day, as Ukrainian drones strike Russia relentlessly. Because of the proximity of these regions to Ukraine, Russia is struggling to defend them, which is why they have become part of the war.

Ukraine directly targets these regions, for example, strikes were reported at the MegaGRINN shopping and entertainment complex in Belgorod, which includes more than two hundred shops, restaurants, a cinema, and entertainment areas. The complex was closed at the time of the strike, with no visitors present, which is why Ukraine struck it to avoid civilian casualties. A major fire also broke out in the city center of Belgorod, where a power substation was knocked out. Then, Ukrainian drones also struck an oil depot, setting it ablaze. Additional footage shows the aftermath of himars strikes on the Belgorod Thermal Power Plant, where damage is visible on the main building.

However, even if Ukraine doesn’t target Russia’s border regions directly, the Ukrainian drones have to travel through the airspace of these regions to reach deeper inside Russia. Recently, Russian monitoring channels reported a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack across multiple regions. Hundreds of drones were tracked through Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk and Voronezh, with further movements reported toward Oryol, Tula and Moscow regions. After the strike, a fire was detected by Nasa satellites at the Marinovka Air Base in Russia's Volgograd region.

Additionally, Ukrainian drones targeted the Bashkir Soda Company in Bashkortostan. The facility is one of Russia’s largest chemical complexes and the country’s only producer of terephthaloyl chloride, a precursor used to make high-strength fibers for body armor, helmets, and ballistic protection. The plant also supplies chemicals to other Russian defense-industrial enterprises, making it an important part of Russia’s defense industrial base.

Because of the constant strikes and flyovers every day, the defense of these border regions is in tatters. When the winter comes, and Russia intensifies its strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure to freeze civilians and try to force them to leave, Ukraine can do the same to Russia’s border regions. Last year was already critical for Russians, as thirty percent of the civilians fled Belgorod city center, and twenty percent left the Oblast outright because of the worsening living conditions caused by Ukrainian strikes.

The situation is even worse in the Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine, because here additionally to the infrastructure of the Russian military, Ukraine hit a series of other targets as well. Notably, Ukraine struck the main post office, a vehicle parking area, and energy infrastructure in Luhansk. Approximately one hundred and fifty thousand customers were left without electricity following the attack. The Lugacom data center in Luhansk was also targeted again, which complicated the communication of Russian forces. However, here it is not Russian civilians, but their soldiers who will need to bear the consequences of Ukrainian strikes. It will be especially difficult during the winter, because Ukraine can easily strike the heating and energy infrastructure, and Russia has limited ability to protect regions so close to the frontline. This means that the Russian soldiers will freeze as well, making the winter disadvantageous for Russia.

Overall, Ukraine is turning Russia’s geographic advantage into a growing strategic weakness, forcing Moscow to defend not only the front line but also increasingly vulnerable border regions. As winter approaches, every successful strike threatens to stretch Russian air defenses even further, while disruptions to electricity and heating could undermine both civilian morale and the combat effectiveness of Russian troops. As a result, Russia will find itself facing the same dilemma it has imposed on Ukraine, divert scarce resources to protect its own population and infrastructure, or accept that more of its territory will become vulnerable to the consequences of the war.