Russian generals gamble EVERYTHING on encircling Orikhiv before Putin hangs them

Today, the most important news is coming from the Orikhiv direction.

With Russians failing on so many fronts, Russian generals are ordering a mad dash to curry favor with Putin and achieve a victory for Russian media. However, overexcited Russian frontline reporters and the presence of highly skilled Ukrainian special forces on the Russian flanks might spell disaster for the new Russian redemption offensive.

The main target of the Russian attacks is the Ukrainian town of Orikhiv, which Russians have failed to capture for over four-and-a-half years. Notably, the battle for the small town of Mala Tokmachka is the longest battle of the entire war in Ukraine lasting over one-thousand-six-hundred-twenty days. And despite sending in hundreds of soldiers now, it is still not under complete Russian control.

The Russian plan is to first pressure Orkhiv, before surrounding and cutting off its main supply lines. To accomplish this, Russians first significantly increased the pressure on Mala Tokmachka and launched a massive infiltration effort against it from the south and east. Through this, Russians were finally able to establish a foothold in the town and spread their infiltrators across the remaining part of it. Next, Russians launched another major infiltration offensive against the town of Novodanylivka to the south, similarly establishing a foothold there, while also pushing their newly infiltrated forces into Orikhiv itself. Notably, while this secured three important tactical victories for Russia, the spread-out nature of their forces meant Russian soldiers on the ground found it difficult to fully consolidate their gains, with Ukrainian drone bombers flying round-the-clock sorties to strike their positions.

Understanding that holding on to three footholds at once would not secure their much-needed victory, Russian forces opted to try to further encircle the town of Orikhiv before making their next push forward. In the west, Russians pressed forward their reserves and captured the town of Mali Shcherbaky. From here, they launched further intense infiltration efforts toward Tavriiske, Yurkivka, and Novopavlivka. While Ukrainians prevented Russians from capturing these towns or establishing a foothold here, the presence of Russian infiltrators made transporting logistics into Orikhiv much more dangerous. However, the Russians did not stop there; they soon also infiltrated the settlement of Chervona Krynytsia. Again, Russians failed to establish a foothold here, and many enemy soldiers were killed by drones in the open fields, while the presence of Russian soldiers in the village still meant that another Ukrainian logistics route into Orikhiv is under threat.

Unfortunately for Russians, while their efforts have been successful and it looks as if they are on the cusp of victory, false frontline reporting might once again become their downfall. Specifically, Russian military reporters are far exaggerating the success of their advances here. The areas where Russians are only infiltrating, Russians are already proclaiming as fully under their control. Similarly, Russians are claiming that Orikhiv itself is essentially fully captured as well, despite Russians in reality still only being present in the southeast. Currently, geolocations of Russian strikes show how Orikhiv and Ukrainian supply routes into the town are coming under heavy Russian air and artillery strikes. However, if false Russian reporting continues, these strikes might soon cease, as Russian artillery and air forces will not strike positions that the army has supposedly already captured, even if in reality Ukrainians still hold strong positions here.

Additionally, less than thirty kilometers to the west of Orikhiv stands a large concentration of Ukrainian special forces units, including the elite forces of Ukraine’s military intelligence GUR.  These forces were just recently involved in the Ukrainian counterattacks that beat back a Russian advance on Zaporizhia city during the winter and spring months. The proximity of this battle-hardened force concentration to the renewed Russian offensive on Orikhiv might spell disaster for the now rather exposed Russian flanks.

Overall, while Russians achieved significant successes in the first stages of their renewed offensive, they are already proclaiming victory before the battle has actually concluded. Similar to recent Russian defeats, it could well be that Russians have still not learned from their mistakes. While the presence of Ukrainian special operations forces on the western flank could result in yet another Ukrainian victory, the situation within the town itself is extremely difficult and should not be understated. Perhaps most importantly, while these Russian gains seem to have materialized out of the blue, it has been a costly battle for Russians spanning several months since the first foothold in Mala Tokmachka was even established, with Russians suffering thousands of casualties throughout the operation.