Russians flee mobilization after grave warning that they will be cannon fodder

Today, the biggest news comes from the Russian Federation.

Russian military experts have come out and said that mobilized Russian soldiers would not be trained or equipped before being sent into battle. The famous Russian military reporter told men eligible for mobilization that they should start learning battlefield first aid, firearms handling, and drone operation as soon as possible. He warned not to believe statements by Russian officials stating that there will not be a second round of mobilization. He warned Russian citizens that because of the many mistakes during the first mobilization in two-thousand-twenty-two, the Russian army cannot be trusted to adequately train and equip you. Urging that Russians eligible for mobilization need to begin taking care of this themselves. He concluded his announcement by stating that an unprepared mobilized unit would have low chances of survival against Ukraine, as a grim warning for a massive wave of casualties that would follow.

The announcement hit home for many. In the wake of the upcoming mobilization, we are seeing a massive exodus of eligible Russian men, fleeing the country to Belarus. Accurate numbers are difficult to gauge, as many Russians leave through covert means or by pretending to go on vacation, due to fears of repercussions for family members or being hunted down abroad. However, large amounts of posts on social media discussing leaving the country, interviews, and sources within organizations helping Russians flee show that the increase is substantial. One of these groups recently shared that the number of Russians they are helping flee the country has increased by more than eight times compared to May. Russians are not only fleeing due to mobilization fears, but also due to the rising instability in Russia and the ever-continuing fuel crisis. Additionally, many young Russians simply do not want to live in a country with constant internet restrictions and no freedom of speech. 

However even in May, before the eight-times increase, Belarus was already seeing a ten to fifteen percent increase in property demand because of the already large influx of Russians fleeing the country. At the start of the year it was already clear that Russian progress in Ukraine was stagnating. And with the significant increase in losses and continuous drop in recruitment numbers, many were already speculating on a second round of mobilization that would be announced later in the year. Now that this mobilization draws closer, even more are fleeing the country. 

The problem of eligible Russian citizens leaving the country is a significant problem for Russia. It makes actually conducting the mobilization much more difficult, as the available pool of conscripts shrinks drastically. Additionally, it worsens the country's labor crisis, as even those who would not be mobilized but already fled due to the risk, are no longer available for conventional jobs in the Russian economy. As such, Russia has tightened the regulations for eligible Russians, with Russian citizens being barred from leaving the country after receiving draft notice. While Russia has also forced Belarus to institute a new law banning any Russian citizen eligible for mobilization at all from leaving the country. 

Likely when the mobilization will occur, we will see a massive Russian effort to track down eligible men in Belarus to force them into the army. Such a move would decrease the size of the Kremlin hunt for soldiers within Russia, possibly reducing social unrest in the country, but only slightly. Notably, this unrest would instead be moved to Belarus, with Lukashenko likely willing to aid Putin in finding these Russians in hiding; because as long as Russian forces have sufficient personnel, Putin will not force Belarus to enter the war and send Belarussians to their deaths. 

However, Russians are not just fleeing to Belarus; at any one time publicly available flight information shows at least ten Russian flights from Saint Petersburg and Moscow flying towards Turkey. Other large destinations include Kazakhstan and Georgia, while a Russian exodus to Serbia has been prevented due to a recent Serbian deal with the EU that limits Russian visa approvals. 

Overall, with the Russian parliamentary elections scheduled for this Sunday, the twentieth of September, Russian citizens eligible for mobilization are fleeing the country en masse. Even Russian military reporters at the highest levels are stating that Russians should not rely on the state or the army to properly train and equip them for the horrific conditions on the frontline fighting Ukraine. As they are receiving major warnings from sources that they trust, many see no reason to stay in Russia and risk being killed in a war that they have no interest in.