Ukrainians cross Zherebets, Russians fail to establish new defense line

Today, there is interesting news from the Liman direction.

Here, Ukrainian troops have crossed the Zherebets River at several points, putting Russian forces north of Liman in an increasingly dangerous situation, as even Russian military bloggers are now alarmed about the development. This effectively confirms that Ukraine has consolidated the settlements on the western bank after eliminating the Russian salient there. Ukrainian units are now pushing from Ivanivka into Terny and Novosadove, from Novoliubavka toward Nevske, and operating around Zarichne in the direction of Torske.

The crossing toward Terny is particularly important because it seals off the Russian pocket in Kolodiazi, where more than one hundred Russian soldiers remain trapped after the wider Russian withdrawal attempt. Previously, they theoretically retained the possibility of escaping east toward the river, even though at great risk of Ukrainian drone fire. Ukrainian troops operating beyond the Zherebets can now threaten those routes from the opposite bank, leaving the remaining Russians without any chance of withdrawal.

At the same time, Russian analysts acknowledge serious problems for their forces, like their depleted formations fighting against fresher Ukrainian assault units, and the lack of effective supplies due to the intense Ukrainian drone activity around river crossings. However, the Russian command appears to be underreporting the severity of the collapse, which only makes things worse for the Russian forces on the ground. The advancing Ukrainian forward units have not yet encountered the concentration of Russian air and drone strikes expected against a major breakthrough, as they are penetrating territory still considered by the Russian command to be a relatively safer rear.

This threatens Russian drone detachments positioned behind the former frontline, which contain highly trained operators whose loss would be considerably more damaging than losing ordinary infantry. If Ukrainian assault groups reach their positions, Russia could simultaneously lose personnel, equipment, and drone fire support needed by nearby formations.

The consequences would be especially serious for the Russians still trapped west of the river. Drone deliveries cannot sustain an isolated force indefinitely, but they can transport ammunition, food, medicine, and batteries. Destroying or displacing Russian drone teams would therefore remove even this limited lifeline.

There is also another opportunity for Ukraine to exploit, because when a frontline moves rapidly, drone units need time to relocate, establish communications, position reconnaissance platforms, and rebuild the reconnaissance-to-strike kill chain. Russia should now be doing exactly that east of the Zherebets. Instead, attempts to soften the scale of the defeat for Russian audiences create further confusion inside the command structure.

As Russian commanders continue working from maps showing lost territory as Russian-controlled, they issue orders based on a battlefield that no longer exists. Drone teams remain in supposedly safe positions, artillery receives incorrect targeting restrictions, and reserves are directed toward strongpoints already bypassed by Ukrainian troops, making them easy prey for ambushes both from the ground and the air.

Ukraine crossing the river itself suggests Russian defenses have not reorganized quickly enough. Ukrainian commanders generally avoid committing assault infantry across major obstacles without sufficient reconnaissance and support, so moving beyond the Zherebets indicates they see an opportunity to exploit Russian disorganization before a coherent defensive line emerges, with Ukrainian troops already appearing behind what Russia expected to become its next defensive barrier.

Overall, Russia’s effort to minimize the loss of its western Zherebets salient is helping produce another crisis, as Ukraine has not merely captured an abandoned bridgehead, but its assault groups are already crossing the obstacle the Russian command needed to stabilize behind. If Russian drone units can't be relocated on time to establish a new kill chain, Ukrainian infiltrations can lead to the establishment of footholds before organized resistance develops. That would transform into a broader breakdown of Russian lines and potentially threaten the other remaining Russian approach toward Liman.