Wow! Russian Oil Exports COLLAPSE OVERNIGHT!

Today, there are interesting updates from the Russian alliance.

Here, India, a key member of the Russian Brics alliance, surrendered to the threat of devastating US sanctions and is about to cut economic ties with Russia. The danger of a heavy economic hit had an immediate effect, putting another nail in the coffin of what was advertised by the Russians to be an alliance that would dominate world politics and economics.

India has dramatically folded under US economic pressure, triggered by the US imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods over New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil and military equipment. US president Donald Trump also threatened with additional penalties over this continued practice by India, and mentioned that the tariffs could rise to 100% if necessary.

The US’s announcement severely impacted India’s strategic planning, given that the United States remains India's largest trade partner, accounting for roughly 18% of its exports, with bilateral trade totaling 186 billion dollars in 2024 and 2025. With a trade surplus, the difference between imports and exports, of 41 billion dollars, and significant service-sector revenues at stake, India's margins risked severe erosion if the proposed tariffs materialized.

Facing the clear and immediate danger of substantial economic harm, Indian state refineries swiftly ceased all purchases of Russian crude oil. Prior to Trump's ultimatum, India imported roughly 87.4 million tons of Russian oil annually, forming about 35% of its total crude imports, worth approximately 50.2 billion dollars. This sudden reversal is a strategic blow to Russia, as Indian refiners, especially state-run enterprises controlling more than 60% of India’s 5.2 million barrels-per-day refining capacity, were major buyers of Russian oil.

Indian companies like Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum have shifted to immediate delivery markets, rapidly replacing Russian crude primarily with Middle Eastern varieties from Abu Dhabi and West Africa at an impressively quick rate.

India’s abrupt reversal significantly undermines Russia’s economic position; following Europe’s embargo on Russian energy, India emerged as Russia’s single largest oil importer, acquiring around 1.8 million barrels per day at its peak. Bilateral trade between India and Russia had surged to over 65 billion dollars in 2024, mostly fueled by oil and fertilizer sales.

Now, with India withdrawing from major Russian oil deals, Moscow faces an imminent crisis as they must rapidly seek alternative markets. Otherwise, Russia would have to deal with selling now large unsold stockpiles through steep discounts, creating an even more severe budget deficit, already expected to reach over 100 billion dollars by the end of the year, and further undermine its already strained wartime economy.

Ironically, India’s announcement arrived just hours after a bold statement by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who publicly mocked Trump’s threats, confidently dismissing concerns over US tariffs. Medvedev stated that Trump’s reaction indicated a Russian strategic advantage, suggesting sarcastically that Trump should recall movies to understand the dangerous territory he was entering, while praising the strength of the partnership between the Russian and Indian economies. Trump had earlier mocked Russia and India as dead economies, declaring indifference toward their economic fates and directly warning Medvedev against further provocations and threats against the United States and Western partner nations.

The swift Indian capitulation underlines a broader geopolitical implication. Despite Moscow’s ambitious claims about the rise of a Brics-led economic world order, capable of rivaling Western financial systems and reducing dependence on the US dollar, the reality remains starkly different. The American decisive economic threats demonstrated the leverage and continued dominance of their economic power. India’s swift realignment away from Russia signifies not just an immediate tactical setback but also a symbolic defeat for the new global economic vision advocated for by Russia.

Overall, despite the defiant rhetoric from Russian officials like Medvedev, the US’s stance yielded surprisingly effective and quick results. India's rapid decision to halt Russian oil imports underscores how critical US economic influence remains globally. As state-owned Indian refineries completely ceased all Russian crude oil purchases, and private refiners quickly switched their import sources, this development represents yet another heavy blow to Russia’s faltering economy. More broadly, India’s retreat undermines Russia's strategic narrative of economic resilience through Brics partnerships, further highlighting the persistent dominance of Western economic pressure on the global stage, and the economic and geopolitical dead-end of continuing to side with Russia.

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