Putin goes all in: mobilizes troops for new invasion of northern Ukraine

Today,there is pressing news from Ukraine’s northern front.

Here,the target for the next major Russian offensive operation was just revealed.Ukrainian intelligence reports reveal that Russia is planning a major offensiveoperation into Ukraine’s northern regions. The report discusses that whileRussia currently has no available reserves to launch such an operation, theexpected mobilization of three-hundred-thousand soldiers by the end of thisyear, planned to start after the upcoming elections on the twentieth ofSeptember, gives Russia the forces it needs to launch the offensive.

Specifically,Russia plans to mobilize a minimum of six-hundred-thousand soldiers through theend of two-thousand-twenty-six and two-thousand-twenty-seven. Ukrainianintelligence expects that by the end of this year, the first half will be fullymobilized, organized, and formed into respective brigades, allowing the Russianoffensive to be launched in January of two-thousand-twenty-seven, within only 4months. The intended targets for such an offensive would be to cross the borderinto the Ukrainian Sumy, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts, and capture or at thevery least threaten the regional capitals with the same names. However, thesecretary of Ukraine’s national security, defense, and intelligence reportsthat Russia is also actively working to formulate an agreement with Belarus,that would allow it to use the country as a staging ground once again.

Asrepeatedly discussed on this channel, Russia and Belarus are massivelyexpanding their military infrastructure, bases, and direct Russian militarydeployments to Belarus. Military analysts are repeatedly warning that throughthese efforts, Russia is creating a staging ground to launch a more sustainedmilitary effort into northern Ukraine. They warn that in the event thishappens, Kyiv itself could once again become a direct target for a Russianground advance.

Thecommander of Ukraine’s national guard Oleksander Pivnenko underscored thesethreats, stating that with three-hundred to six-hundred-thousand soldiers asreinforcement, Russia could advance between ten to twenty kilometers intoUkraine’s northern border. However, he specified that this would be the maximumextent of the possible Russian advance, and that Russians would not be able tocome close to Kyiv again at all. Therefore, the likely main goal and result ofthe offensive would not be to directly capture regional capitals, but to onlythreaten them and force a Ukrainian response.

Currently,the main force of Ukraine’s ground army is focused on defending the easternfront along the Donetsk, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhia regions, withother forces already deployed to the Kherson region, as well as theinternational border in Kharkiv. If these were forced to redeploy to the north,this would open up opportunities for Russia’s formations in the east to achievelarger operational gains and capture more territory in the Donbas. However,currently Russia is already losing more soldiers here than they can replace,and the constant attacks along the entire frontline have not allowed them tobuild up any major operational reserves; with all new recruits being almostimmediately deployed for frontline assaults. Additionally, in many sectors,Ukrainians are currently either retaking the initiative or forcing Russiansinto a deadlock by denying any advance. This means that a large part of thesoldiers that will be mobilized after the elections will be forced to reinforceRussian formations in the east, so that Russian commanders can retain offensiveposture. The more reserves that Russia has to deploy to the east to achieve itsmain military objectives in Donbas, the fewer soldiers Russia can use to invadeUkraine from the north, and the more they have to scale back their goals forit. Regardless of how massive a success or failure it turns out to be, thethreat of a renewed Russian offensive into northern Ukraine, is very, veryreal, and the outcome depends entirely on Ukraine’s ability to adequatelyrespond.

Overall,the upcoming mobilization that Russia is planning to launch after theparliamentary elections later this month will give Russian high command amassive influx of soldiers that it can deploy. Ukrainian intelligence andmilitary commanders knowledgeable on Russian plans warn that it is highlylikely that a large portion of these reserves will be deployed for furthercross-border offensive operations into Ukraine’s northern regions. The factthat Russia and Belarus are actively expanding military infrastructure on theBelarusian border as well, signifies that such an offensive could also belaunched from the territory of Belarus itself. However, Ukraine’s recentsuccesses in the east may force Russia to redirect a large number of thesemobilized personnel to reinforce their eastern offensives instead,significantly lowering the risk to Ukraine’s northern regions; while notoutright stamping it out, it is now up to Ukraine to formulate and prepare aneffective response to the threat.