Russians panic as Ukraine conducts devastating attacks from the sea

In this video, we will analyze Ukrainian amphibious attack on the Kinburn Spit.

Here, Ukrainian forces are steadily reshaping the battlefield with drones that pressure Russian positions along the spits and coastline in southwestern Ukraine. The expanded campaign is creating panic among Russian commanders, who increasingly fear that these Ukrainian operations may actually be preparing the conditions for something much larger.

Recently released Ukrainian footage illustrates these Russian fears, as one Ukrainian Bayraktar drone destroyed a Russian boat attempting to transport personnel or supplies to the Tenderivska Spit. Another clip shows a quick Russian boat trying to exploit its high speed, but without success, as it is destroyed even before reaching the shore. While the Bayraktar has spent much of the past two years operating primarily as a reconnaissance asset because of Russian air defenses, the systematic Ukrainian attacks against Russian radar stations and air-defense systems have opened growing gaps, allowing larger drones to operate much closer to the front once again.

At the same time, Ukraine's Fortieth Marine Brigade employed Barracuda unmanned naval vessels that function as mobile drone carriers. They allowed the transportation of FPV and heavy bomber drones, used to strike observation posts, ammunition depots and logistics positions, as confirmed by Ukrainian footage. Other Barracuda drones were captured carrying anti-aircraft missiles for self-protection, further eroding Russia's ability to counter their activity. Together with persistent Ukrainian surveillance, these operations are steadily making Russian positions along the Tenderivska Spit and nearby coastlines increasingly difficult to hold.

This sustained pressure forced many Russian analysts to think that Ukraine is preparing something far more ambitious than drone strikes meant simply to eliminate Russian soldiers and weaken their overall posture. Some of them are increasingly speculating that Ukrainian special forces are rehearsing operations around the Kinburn Peninsula, pointing to reported boat exercises and smoke-screen training near the Yuzhni Bug River leading toward the Dnipro-Bug estuary. According to these Russian assessments, more than two thousand five hundred Ukrainian soldiers from various formations subordinate to the Thirtieth Marine Corps have reportedly assembled in the direction. They are supported by forty-six boats, over one hundred inflatable boats, at least nine naval drones, and additional armored vehicles and artillery systems.

Concerned that these preparations could precede an amphibious operation, Russian forces launched a strike against what they described as a Ukrainian staging area along the Yuzhni Bug River, using 5 Geranium drones to strike at buildings and grass on the territory of the base. Russian analysts pointed out the attack was to disrupt any Ukrainian operation before it began, claiming it had also damaged boats and equipment, although no visual confirmation of any of these losses has emerged.

Russian analysts believe the Ukrainian plan for an amphibious attack would unfold in several carefully coordinated phases. Ukraine would initially conduct a limited diversionary landing near Pokrovske using a relatively small force designed to probe Russian defenses while establishing a temporary beachhead. Fire support would reportedly come from rocket-armed naval drones and FPV drones operating from both landing craft and nearby positions on the mainland. Once Russian defenses would be pinned down, a larger assault force of up to eight hundred troops would land further along the coastline, aiming to isolate nearby settlements before advancing toward the administrative boundary separating Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. Simultaneously, additional activity around other settlements along the coastline could divide Russian attention, while specialized Ukrainian Sargan-class naval drones can clear the Russian minefields protecting the beaches.

What makes this Russian fear much more plausible today than in previous years is the changing balance of capabilities. Prominent Russian military analysts argue that their logistics throughout Russian-controlled southern Ukraine have come under immense Ukrainian pressure, while the relatively short distance of three and a half kilometers between Ukrainian-controlled Ochakiv and the Kinburn Peninsula simplifies amphibious operations. They state that Ukraine now also possesses far greater numbers of naval and airborne drones, with these variants now capable of providing reconnaissance, fire support, precision strikes, and even logistical and casualty evacuation support throughout such an operation. They add that at the same time, expanding Ukrainian middle-strike drone campaigns continue degrading their fuel depots, logistics hubs, and infrastructure across the Russian rear, undermining the Russian army’s ability to adequately respond in time.

Overall, even if Russian suspicions don’t materialize, the psychological impact of Ukraine's drone campaign is already evident. It has forced Russian commanders into a defensive posture while fueling fears that every destroyed observation post, supply boat, or radar station is simply preparing the battlefield for a future bridgehead. Should Ukraine continue with this, any isolated Russian force established on the coastline would face increasing difficulty receiving reinforcements and supplies. Even without a landing taking place immediately, Ukraine has already succeeded in compelling Russia to devote substantial attention and resources to preparing for one.